Abstract

This study assesses the readiness of municipal solid waste management (MSWM) systems in the Abuja metropolis and its environs for transition to a circular economy (CE) model, addressing escalating waste challenges within Nigeria’s urban landscape. Guided by the objective to evaluate multidimensional readiness and develop a localized understanding of system dynamics, the study employs a convergent parallel mixed-methods design, integrating quantitative surveys (n=421) with qualitative Key Informant Interviews (n=25). Theoretical frameworks—Urban Metabolism Theory, Ecological Modernization Theory, and Institutional Theory—frame the analysis across institutional, infrastructural, socio-behavioural, and policy dimensions. Descriptive statistics reveal a moderate overall CE readiness (composite mean = 2.76/5), where relatively strong socio-behavioural willingness (mean = 3.12) is severely constrained by deep infrastructural deficits (mean = 2.41). Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) validates a four-factor readiness structure explaining 67.4% of the total variance, while Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) identify institutional readiness as the strongest predictor of transition capability (β=0.285, p<0.001). Qualitative themes highlight severe inter-agency coordination silos, the proliferation of illegal dumpsites, significant untapped market potential for recyclables, and an urgent need for institutionalized behavioral incentives. The study concludes that while a CE transition in Abuja is highly feasible, it requires targeted governance reforms, infrastructural investments in Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs), and the formal integration of the informal waste sector.