Abstract

Coastal vegetation in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria, serves as a critical biological infrastructure for “blue carbon” sequestration and shoreline protection. However, these ecosystems are increasingly compromised by a “triple threat” of industrial expansion, resource overexploitation, and invasive species. This study examines the drivers and ecological consequences of vegetation change across seven Local Government Areas (LGAs), utilizing a mixed-methods approach that integrates socio-economic surveys (n=350) with structural ecological analysis. Findings reveal a significant “proximity effect” near oil and gas infrastructure, where 30% of indigenous mangroves within a 500-meter radius have experienced total die-back. Socio-economic data identifies fuelwood collection for fish smoking (44%) and timber harvesting (25%) as the primary drivers of canopy thinning. This fragmentation has facilitated a “successional trap,” characterized by the aggressive proliferation of the invasive nipa palm (Nypa fruticans), which now accounts for 58% of the cover in Eastern Obolo. Theoretically grounded in Island Biogeography and the Social-Ecological Systems (SES) Framework, the research highlights a critical governance gap: while 85% of local communities are willing to manage restoration zones, only 12% are aware of existing state forestry laws. The study concludes that the transition from indigenous Rhizophora to invasive Nypa monocultures results in a functional “service deficit,” reducing wave attenuation and carbon storage capacity. To arrest this decline, the study proposes a community-led “green zones,” the formalization of Informal Cross-Border Trade (ICBT) routes, and the adoption of high-efficiency smoking kilns to align local livelihoods with the goals of the Blue Economy.