From Farmland to Forest: Spatiotemporal Evidence of Rural Depopulation and Agricultural Decline in Southwestern Nigeria
- OLALEYE Oluwaseun Mercy PhD
- Department of Geography, Adeyemi Federal University of Education, Ondo State, Nigeria
This study employs a comprehensive geospatial analysis to examine the geographical and temporal effects of rural depopulation on agricultural productivity in Igunshin, Ondo West Local Government Area, Ondo State, Nigeria. The study categorised and examined land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes utilising multi-temporal Landsat datasets (2000–2025) through advanced remote sensing and GIS methodologies in ENVI 5.6 and ArcGIS Pro 3.0 platforms. The application of the Maximum Likelihood Algorithm in supervised classification, with accuracy ratings over 85%, facilitated the accurate demarcation of agricultural land, urban areas, vegetation, and open spaces. The research indicated a notable reduction in agricultural land from 14.76 km² (13.01%) in 2000 to 7.27 km² (6.41%) in 2025, although vegetative cover rose from 52.78% to 79.80%. Urban regions had temporary growth until 2010, followed by a significant decline, signifying the spatial manifestation of rural depopulation. These dynamics underscore the negative correlation between population reduction and agricultural production, hence reinforcing the migration-productivity theoretical paradigm. The results indicate that persistent emigration, an ageing rural demographic, and inadequate infrastructural development together lead to agricultural decline and ecological regression. The study indicates that agricultural production would persist in its fall unless strategic rural revitalisation, encompassing young agripreneurship, infrastructural investment, and integrated land-use policy, is enacted. This work enhances the discourse on rural spatial change in Sub-Saharan Africa by illustrating the efficacy of geospatial analytics in elucidating the demographic factors influencing agricultural sustainability.
