Projected climate change trends and key climate response policies in Vietnam

Abstract

The study applies a combination of methods to initially forecast climate change trends in Vietnam, while systematizing strategic policies of the Party, ministries and branches on climate change response; Reviewing the system of policies, laws, programs and action plans of the Vietnamese Government and relevant ministries and branches. The results indicate that Vietnam is experiencing significant impacts of climate change, including rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, and more intense extreme weather events, and accelerating sea-level rise. By 2100, mean temperatures are projected to increase by 1.6–2.4°C under RCP 4.5 and 3.2–4.2°C under RCP 8.5, with greater warming in the North. Rainfall is expected to increase by 15–25%, alongside more intense storms, heatwaves, and droughts, while sea level may rise 53–73 cm, heightening inundation risks in major delta regions. These changes threaten the country’s economy, food security, and ecosystems. Vietnam has established a comprehensive policy framework, including Resolution 24-NQ/TW, national climate strategies, action plans, and sectoral programs, and actively aligns with international commitments such as the Paris Agreement and COP26. All provinces have also developed local adaptation plans.